US Elections: Is early vote count trend reliable? Winner will be delcared when…

The final voting for the US Presidential Election began as early as midnight (local time) on Tuesday, November 5. People residing in a town in New Hampshire became the first to cast ballot on Tuesday. The US election results in New Hampshire’s Dixville Notch were also declared by a few media outlets. They showed the town was split between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris or Republican rival Donald Trump, with three votes for each.
Meanwhile, many stay focused on the results of seven swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Both Harris and Trump have remained in cut-throat competition in the seven key states that could ultimately decide the next US President, as per opinion polls.
However, experts believe that early vote returns in US battleground states may not be a good indicator of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win, thanks to vote-counting rules and quirks in several key states.
The key to the trends lies in counting mail ballots, in-person votes and maybe early voting. It is further speculated that early vote counting may show Donald Trump leading – keeping in view his repeated calls to his supporters to vote early this time. “The early vote numbers confirm that millions of Republicans have heeded Trump’s call in recent weeks,” the Associated Press reported.
Experts anticipated a repeat of the 2020 elections when some states showed a “red mirage,” in which Trump was leading on election night, before a “blue shift” saw Democrat Joe Biden overtake him, Reuters reported. This happened as mail-in ballots favoured by more Democratic voters were counted. Red represents the Republicans and Blue Democrats.
It could happen again this week, especially in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, the opposite – a “blue mirage” showing a strong result for Democrat Harris before a surprise “red shift” to reverse the trend – could also happen this week, especially in North Carolina and Georgia.
How everything plays out will depend on how and when the large numbers of mail-in or early ballots are processed and counted in the different states. Another factor cited by Reuters is that Democrats tend to live in more populous urban areas, where counting votes takes longer. Voting may also be delayed in states where the race is too close to call. A recount may also happen in that case.
PENNSYLVANIA: With more Democrats than Republicans voting by mail, the early results – based on in-person Election Day votes – will probably show Trump ahead. But his lead will likely shrink as more mail ballots are counted.
WISCONSIN: Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin does not allow election officials to process or count mail ballots until the morning of the election, which means there can be a delay in reporting the results of those early votes.
GEORGIA: All early votes – in-person and mail – must be counted and reported by 8 pm ET (0000 GMT) on election night, according to state law. Officials are aiming to have all votes, including those from Election Day, tallied by midnight. Meanwhile, ballots from overseas and military voters will be accepted up to three days after the election if postmarked by November 5.
ARIZONA: The initial results on election night should be mostly early votes, which could favor Harris, before the numbers shift toward Trump as Election Day votes are tallied. They could move back toward Harris in the days to follow as late-arriving mail ballots are tabulated.
NORTH CAROLINA: If the election is as close as polls suggest, the outcome in North Carolina may remain unclear for a week or more. Absentee ballots that arrive on Nov. 5, as well as ballots from overseas and military voters, are tallied during the 10-day canvass period that follows Election Day.
NEVADA: Any ballot postmarked by Nov. 5 will still be counted if it arrives within four days. Those late ballots historically favor Democrats, so a shift toward Harris could occur as votes are counted after Election Day.
A “projected” winner will be declared only when all the ballots – cast in-person and through mail – are counted. Even after all votes are counted, the tally won’t suggest an absolute winner. It will only indicate the winner of the “popular vote” or the candidate who won the most number of votes cast in November 5 election.
But the “popular vote” is not the only criteria to win US elections. The official winner will be declared only after electoral votes are held in mid-December. A presidential candidate needs support of at least 270 electors to become president – which is possible even if the same candidate lost the popular vote.
According to the Associate Press’ tally, more than 77 million people have already participated in early voting. Rest will exercise their right on Tuesday.